The COVID-19 pandemic is touching every aspect of life – including crime and punishment. On the one hand, it’s natural to expect that criminal conduct during the pandemic will be reduced because less people are out and about. Criminal activity such as assaults, exchanging money or drugs, and other actions require close contact – which is highly discouraged during a pandemic. On the other hand, times are tough, and people are out of work – which means some people are tempted to turn to drugs and alcohol for comfort.

A recent article in the aptly named Contagion Live, discusses crime and punishment in the age of COVID-19. The article mentions reports from NPR and by Vox that murders and shootings are on the rise. Another research study by University College London published on October 14th in PLOS ONE adds more insight. The researchers study the “best way to reduce crime,” and focus on a “common set of metrics” to help facilitate the analysis of the relationship between COVID-19 and crime.

Prior research at the University showed that seasonal factors, such as hours of darkness and holidays, do affect crime patterns. Their new research focuses on the relationship between crime and natural disasters, terrorist attacks, international events, and even global pandemics. The research team used “resilience theory, which considers the ability of systems to adapt and survive in the face of anxiety-inducing events.”

The study “developed a set of quantitative tools, including mathematical models, that can be used to analyze how the pandemic impacts criminal activity within and between cities.” The published study applied the team’s theories by comparing daily commercial thefts in a large Chinese city that endured a significant lockdown period to a pre-pandemic time frame. The data focuses on the period of the lockdown (January 1 through April 29) and the pre-pandemic period of September 2017 through December 2019. By April 29, the lockdown had concluded.

The results of the London study

The researchers found that the rate of commercial theft decreased by 64 percent during the lockdown. After the lockdown period, the rate of theft was higher than expected. The lead researcher “and his colleagues believe the ‘resilience indicators’ they developed captures how criminal activity recovers after a disturbance, including a major event—and the COVID-19 pandemic certainly qualifies.” The team hopes other researchers will use their techniques to assess the impact of COVID-19 on crime.

It’s critical to understand how pandemic and other disasters affect criminal behavior, so law enforcement can prepare the best ways to respond. The researchers admit there’s much more work to be done, including working with:

• Epidemiologists, public health specialists and mathematicians
• South American police forces to better understand crime fluctuations in local neighborhoods

At Delius & McKenzie, PLLC, our trial lawyers fight for defendants who have been charged with crimes. We work aggressively to exclude illegally obtained evidence, to assert your Constitutional rights, to seek acquittals, and negotiate just plea bargains. When necessary, we’re ready to try your case before a jury of your peers.

For help with any criminal charge, call (865) 428-8780 or use our contact form to schedule an appointment. We represent injury victims in Sevierville, Seymour, Gatlinburg, Pigeon Forge, and the surrounding Tennessee areas.